Can statistics tell a story?

Can statistics tell a story?

Perhaps part of a story, but not all of it. However, all over the world, numbers are used to tell whole stories of change. Numbers can offer certainty; they can prove where change is or is not happening; they can show who has and who has not taken what action; and they can show where responsibility sits.

In Scotland, a range of statistical reports are published regularly on different groups of people with varying experiences. A number of these reports are relevant to keeping the promise.

But as they focus on specific systems and sectors, they don’t reflect people's actual lives. None of us live in siloes. We all engage with different systems and services, often simultaneously, throughout our lives.

Later this month the annual data on the numbers of children ‘in care’ and in ‘continuing care’ and ‘aftercare’ will be published.

These numbers, along with a range of others, will be updated in The Promise Progress Framework, which provides the frame to tell The Promise Story of Progress. Since December, the Framework has been populated with national level data so national progress is clearer.

But numbers alone are not enough

Because each number isn’t just a number— it’s a person, and a number cannot show the experience they are having, whether in care, or not. National statistics cannot say if the experiences of Scotland's care experienced children, young people and adults are improving.

So, a key focus for The Promise Scotland in 2025 is being able to tell the whole story, and supporting others to do the same. The Strategic Work Programme for 2025-2026 was launched last month, with developing the Promise Story of Progress one of its four priorities.

So, how will Scotland know?

The Promise Story of Progress has been designed to help Scotland to know if the promise is on track to be kept. Where it isn’t, it provides a depth of understanding which enables action to be taken.

The Story of Progress seeks to address the disconnect between what matters to children, young people and families, and the recorded data, to tell a more rounded story. It brings together different types of information to understand three questions:

As the calls to action in the Independent Care Review focused on what changes were needed from the ‘care system’— at its very widest, the starting point to answer the question about how Scotland is doing was looking at national indicators, brought together and published in The Promise Progress Framework.

This year, The Promise Scotland, along with The Scottish Government, COSLA and partners, will develop methods to answer the other two questions – most importantly on whether or not the care community feel the impact of the promise being kept, as well as on organisational progress – so they can be added to the Promise Story of Progress. When this is complete, the whole story will become clearer.

Then, over the coming years, when updated statistics are published, these will be plugged into the Framework, showing how this story is changing.

To add to this story, information from all local authorities is currently being brought together, to get a sense of progress from a local perspective.

Then all the national data, information from local authorities and organisations can be brought together, alongside an understanding of how change is being felt in the lives of the care experienced community, to make clear where work needs to increase pace and/or quality.

What does this mean for the annual children in care statistics?

It is important to keep this context in mind when the statistics are published later this month.

Whether the overall numbers go up or down, what Scotland really needs to be sure of is that every single child and young person is in the best place for them, with the care they need— a shift from counting numbers to meeting needs. A move away from knee-jerk responses and a perception that an increase in numbers is always a bad thing. It may be that more children are staying loved, safe and respected in the ‘care system’ for longer.

Scotland will only be able to tell a different story of care when it has developed an understanding of the real lives of the children behind the statistics. That nuance does not make for snappy, clear soundbites which ‘systems’ like to prove a point— but it’s so much more important.

By the time April 2026 rolls around and the next set of statistics is published on the lives of children and young people, Scotland will have a better understanding of what the numbers mean.

Until then, while it is important to review data and understand numbers, it is as important to be mindful that they are not the whole story. And not look to draw absolutes from numbers alone, as this risks ignoring what really matters to Scotland’s care experienced children, young people and their families.

About the author

Photo credit: Sarah Maclean

Claire Stuart

Head of Insights

Claire leads the Insights Team and is a member of The Promise Scotland’s Senior Leadership Team. The work she leads splits into two parallel programmes:

• data, information and evidence used to track and monitor Scotland’s progress to #KeepThePromise and,
• data, information and evidence as improvement tools across the change landscape.

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